Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.019523 0.022164 0.025041 0.028407 0.032241 0.036475 0.041507
2025-03-16 0.015042 0.018580 0.022775 0.028125 0.034776 0.042790 0.053203
2025-03-23 0.013071 0.017095 0.022151 0.028987 0.038014 0.049562 0.065520
2025-03-30 0.011036 0.015115 0.020487 0.028102 0.038662 0.052851 0.073469
2025-04-06 0.009660 0.013768 0.019401 0.027723 0.039763 0.056646 0.082283
2025-04-13 0.008364 0.012347 0.018009 0.026683 0.039716 0.058699 0.088678
2025-04-20 0.007825 0.011937 0.017978 0.027554 0.042461 0.064958 0.101824
2025-04-27 0.007320 0.011508 0.017853 0.028234 0.044930 0.070974 0.115141
2025-05-04 0.006920 0.011191 0.017852 0.029075 0.047690 0.077644 0.130118
2025-05-11 0.006340 0.010524 0.017225 0.028829 0.048633 0.081434 0.140654
2025-05-18 0.005886 0.010015 0.016798 0.028854 0.049996 0.085993 0.152885
2025-05-25 0.005406 0.009415 0.016160 0.028446 0.050553 0.089189 0.162975
2025-06-01 0.005125 0.009143 0.016068 0.029007 0.052914 0.095834 0.180155
2025-06-08 0.004734 0.008640 0.015531 0.028722 0.053720 0.099772 0.192733
2025-06-15 0.004555 0.008502 0.015630 0.029603 0.056756 0.108075 0.214503
2025-06-22 0.004147 0.007901 0.014825 0.028699 0.056288 0.109671 0.223162
2025-06-29 0.003847 0.007479 0.014315 0.028311 0.056776 0.113136 0.235906
2025-07-06 0.003495 0.006923 0.013503 0.027249 0.055805 0.113589 0.242398
2025-07-13 0.003398 0.006865 0.013655 0.028139 0.058904 0.122583 0.267989
2025-07-20 0.003286 0.006765 0.013711 0.028834 0.061649 0.131079 0.293362
2025-07-27 0.003197 0.006704 0.013842 0.029693 0.064819 0.140761 0.322385
2025-08-03 0.003006 0.006414 0.013473 0.029442 0.065533 0.145151 0.339710
2025-08-10 0.002855 0.006196 0.013239 0.029467 0.066859 0.151011 0.361075